Canadian Grocery Inflation, 2015-2026

Analysis of grocery prices vs overall inflation · Statistics Canada Table 18-10-0004-01 (CPI, monthly)

Summary

Food purchased from stores is up 43.4% since January 2015 — well ahead of the 36.0% rise in the all-items CPI. Grocery inflation exceeded overall inflation in 77 of 126 months (61%). The gap peaked at 6.3 percentage points in June 2023 and has since narrowed to about 1 percentage point.

1. The overall picture

Consumer Price Index levels, Canada, 2002=100
Index levels (2002 = 100). All series share the same base year and are directly comparable.
SeriesJan 2015Jun 2026Total changeAnnualized
Fresh vegetables129.6200.9+55.0%+4.1%/yr
Food purchased from restaurants128.2192.7+50.3%+3.8%/yr
Food purchased from stores126.6181.5+43.4%+3.4%/yr
All-items124.3169.1+36.0%+2.9%/yr
Fresh fruit135.9177.9+30.9%+2.5%/yr

2. Year-over-year inflation

Year-over-year inflation, food store vs all-items
Year-over-year percent change. Grocery inflation ran above the all-items rate for most of the decade, spiking in 2021-2023.

3. The grocery gap

Grocery inflation minus overall inflation
Grocery-store inflation minus all-items inflation, in percentage points. Positive bars mean groceries outran the overall basket.

Regression (ordinary least squares, monthly YoY, Jan 2016 - Jun 2026, n=126):

CoefficientEstimater²
All-items inflation (slope)1.440.54
Intercept-0.52
For every 1 percentage point the all-items CPI rose, grocery-store inflation rose about 1.44 percentage points. Groceries are structurally more inflationary than the overall basket.

4. Where we are now

As of June 2026, food purchased from stores was inflating at 3.9% year-over-year, vs 2.8% for the all-items CPI — a gap of about 1 percentage point, down from its 6.3-point peak in June 2023.

Data & method